Forwarded message and heartfelt plea from Ineke Buskens        http://www.dadamac.net/network/ineke-buskens

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ineke Buskens <ineke@researchforthefuture.com>
Date: 4 May 2011 12:54
Dear friends

I hope this letter finds you all fine and well.

As everybody else in the world, we in GRACE are following the Freedom Fights in the Middle East with hope, admiration and horror.
But because half of our Network is living and working in the Middle East, we may be more aware than many other people living in the West of what is actually going on.

One of the things that strikes me as weird and tragic is the fact that there is an international silence when it comes to Yemen.
Is it because Europeans and Americans are not aware of the existence of the country?
Is Yemen farther removed from western consciousness than for instance Egypt, Libya and Tunisia?

Whatever it may be, we appeal to you, wherever you are, to reach out to the Yemeni people and the people from Syria and Bahrain.
They are seeking their freedom too, they are rebelling against their Tyrants also and these Tyrants are lashing out cruelly and ruthlessly.
Yet the West remains silent, especially on Yemen.

The other thing that strikes me as very weird is the fact that the role of the female freedom fighters is 'blacked out' by the media.
I can only speak for South Africa because I live here, but apparently this is happening in other western countries as well.
Why is that?
I saw female freedom fighters on national news in the Netherlands, I did not see such in South Africa.
Is the South African media too sexist to reconcile the image of a freedom fighter with a woman, or are they sexist and racist? 
Making it impossible for them to 'see' a muslim woman fighting for democracy?

Whatever it may be, women are fighting for freedom in the Middle East.
Not only for their own freedom but for that of their families, communities and beloved countries.

I am copying our Yemeni colleagues into this mail so that you can approach them directly if you wish.
I am also requesting that you send this mail around to as many people as you can.
And if you want to inform yourself about what is going on, the Centre for the Study of Islam and Democracy (CSID) is a good place to start: https://www.csidonline.org/

Kind regards

Ineke Buskens

Below, the text of the May edition of the CSID journal follows:

--- On Tue, 3/5/11, Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy <info@islam-democracy.org> wrote:
Subject: CSID Bulletin - Uprisings in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain - Apr. 30, 2011

In This Issue

Syria to bury scores killed in 'day of rage' protests

Yemeni people denounce regime's bloody violence, international silence

Yemen's Saleh due to sign transition deal

Libya's Gaddafi offers ceasefire, but will not leave

BAHRAIN:...Military court sentences protesters to death

Egypt, Tunisia, and The Death of Osama Bin Laden

An Arab Spring for Women:...The Missing Story From the Middle East

International Crisis Group Report on Tunisia:...Tunisia's Way

UN body invites Election Committee to help Arab nations conduct polls

Contrasting progress on democracy in Tunisia and Egypt

Tunisian gender-parity 'revolution' hailed

5 voices: What's next for the 'Arab Spring'?

About CSID

Syria to bury scores killed in 'day of rage' protests

Pro-democracy demonstrators have vowed to stage further protests next week as Syria prepares to bury those killed in Friday's "day of rage" rallies, during which activists say at least 62 people were killed.

By News Wires

Peaceful Demonstrations in Syria
Syrians prepared on Saturday to bury scores of people killed in a "day of rage" against the regime, with activists vowing a week of new protests as the United States and Europe imposed sanctions on Damascus.

At least 62 people were killed in clashes on Friday when tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets, activists said, while authorities said nine members of the security forces were killed by "terrorist groups."
Pro-democracy protests were held against President Bashar al-Assad's regime in most cities and major towns after Muslim weekly prayers, as on past Fridays for a month, witnesses said.

"Your blood has paved the way for our freedom... And we vow that your blood will not have been spilled in vain. The martyrs are eternal, but the criminals will end up in the dustbins of history after being judged and punished by the people," it said.

Demonstrations would take place on Sunday in the southern protest hub town of Daraa, which has been besieged by security forces since Monday along with the Damascus suburb of Douma.

Activists also called for rallies on Monday in Damascus, Tuesday in the northern towns of Banias and Jableh, Wednesday in Homs, Talbisseh and in Tall Kalakh on the border with Lebanon, and night vigils on Thursday.

Friday's deadly "day of rage" protests gripped many Syrian cities and towns, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told AFP in Nicosia, with 33 people reported killed in Daraa alone.

The group said in a statement after the bloodshed that a total of 582 people have been killed since protests erupted on March 15 by security forces firing live rounds and tear gas.

As the violence raged, Washington blocked the assets of the president's brother Maher al-Assad, who commands Syria's feared Fourth Armoured Division, and of several other top officials and its intelligence services.

"The United States strongly condemns the Syrian government's continued use of violence and intimidation against the Syrian people," the White House said in a statement on Friday.

But Assad's embattled regime reiterated its running ban on demonstrations, despite lifting a decades-old law barring them earlier this month, as the Muslim Brotherhood accused it of "genocide."

In Daraa itself, security forces opened fire as "thousands of people" from neighbouring towns tried to "bring aid and food" to the city, besieged by the army since Monday, an activist said.

Water and power have been cut in Daraa as the situation worsened after between 3,000 and 5,000 troops backed by tanks stormed the town.
-------------

Yemeni people denounce regime's bloody violence, international silence  By News Yemen

Peaceful Demonstration in Yemen
 
A wave of anger swept the capital Sana'a and other Yemeni provinces following the bloody crime committed by the regime against peaceful demonstrators in the capital Sana'a on Wednesday.

Youth in all freedom and change squares across the country have condemned the security crackdown that killed 11 protesters and wounded 798 others, urging the international community to intervene to stop bloodshed against the people of Yemen.

Youth in Change Square in Sana'a denounce "the silence of international community towards the crisis of Yemeni people while it is moving to take strict measures against the Syrian regime."

Protesters also reject to give President Saleh and members of his regime, who are involved in killing protesters, any immunity after stepping down.

When protesters reached the street in front of Al-Thawra Stadium, May 22nd Hall and official Yemen TV, plainclothes security forces and armed thugs as usual opened fire at the mass protest, killing 13 and injuring 798 others, according to eyewitnesses. Attackers reportedly used sharp tools, batons and rocks as well.

The opposition Joint Meeting Parties strongly condemned the continuous crackdowns and violence by the regime against protesters and pointed that the JMP might not sign the GCC-brokered proposal "if does not put end to the regime's crimes."

Amnesty International, the only international organization which has immediately condemned the bloody violence against protesters on Wednesday, said that President Saleh and his political allies must not be given immunity from prosecution "as the price for ending the country's spiraling human rights crisis."   
 
"President Ali Abdullah Saleh must not be allowed to evade accountability for the long catalogue of human rights crimes committed under his rule," said Malcolm Smart, Amnesty International's director for the Middle East and North Africa.
 
The battle has become between protesters and President Saleh, who is clearly losing all supporters inside and outside the country day by day and only miracle can save him.  
----------------
Yemen's Saleh due to sign transition deal  By Mohamed Sudam and Mohammed Ghobari | Reuters

Yemen's president was to sign an agreement on Saturday to quit power in a month's time in exchange for immunity in a deal that, if implemented, would make him the third Arab ruler ousted by a wave of popular uprisings.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state for nearly 33 years, has in principle accepted the agreement negotiated by his oil-exporting neighbors in the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Yemen's main opposition coalition, which includes both Islamists and leftists, has also agreed to the deal, even as street protesters have rejected the agreement and demand Saleh step down immediately and face prosecution.  

Millions have been demonstrating for the past 3 months asking for Saleh to leave office after 33 years in office
 
Saleh, a shrewd political operator long considered a U.S. ally against al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing, has forced mediators to split the signing ceremonies over two days and has objected to the presence of Qatari officials.

Qatar's prime minister was first to state publicly the Gulf deal would seek Saleh's resignation, and its satellite TV channel Al Jazeera has been blamed by Saleh for inciting revolt in the Arab world, swept by pro-democracy protests.

While the Yemeni leader signs the pact in Sanaa, his party's vice president will travel to the Saudi capital Riyadh for Sunday's official signing ceremony by the opposition, which has warned that further bloodshed could derail the deal.

The Secretary-General of the GCC, Abdullatif al-Zayani, arrived in Sanaa to deliver the initiative to Saleh for him to ratify later in the day, a government official said.
----------------------

Libya's Gaddafi offers ceasefire, but will not leave

Muammar Gaddafi

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi said on Saturday he was ready for a ceasefire and negotiations provided NATO "stop its planes", but he refused to give up power as rebels and Western powers demand. The rebels and NATO rejected Gaddafi's offer, saying it lacked credibility.  
 
A spokesman for the insurgents said the time for compromise had passed and NATO said air strikes would go on as long as Libyan civilians were being threatened. Weeks of Western air strikes have failed to dislodge the Libyan leader, instead imposing a stalemate on a war Gaddafi looked to have been winning, with government forces held at bay in the east and around the besieged city of Misrata while fighting for control of the western mountains. 

Peaceful demonstrations in Libya were met with violence from Gaddafi's airplanes, tanks, and merceneries.
 
 With neither side apparently able to gain the upper hand, Gaddafi struck a more conciliatory tone in an 80-minute televised address to the nation in the early hours of Saturday. "(Libya) is ready until now to enter a ceasefire," said Gaddafi, speaking from behind a desk and aided by reams of paper covered in what appeared to be hand-written notes.
 
"Let us negotiate with you, the countries that attack us. Let us negotiate." But as he spoke, NATO warplanes hit three targets close to the television building in Tripoli in what state media said was an attempt to kill Gaddafi who has ruled since a 1969 coup. The air strikes left a large crater outside the attorney general's office but did not damage the building, and hit two other government offices housed in colonial-era buildings. It was not immediately clear if there were any casualties. The rebels' transitional national council dismissed Gaddafi's gesture, saying the Libyan leader had repeatedly offered ceasefires only to continue violating human rights. 

BAHRAIN:
Military court sentences protesters to death By Roula Hajjar | Los Angeles Times

Peaceful Demonstrations in Bahrain
 
In a sharp escalation of the repression of a smoldering opposition movement, a military court in Bahrain sentenced four activists to death for the alleged murder of two police officers during pro-democracy demonstrations in March, Bahrain's official news agency reported.
 
This is a kind of precedent-setting case in Bahrain. The suspects are the first civilians to ever be tried in a Bahraini military court, which is called the Lower Security Court.
 
Three other men were sentenced to life in jail by a monarchy that has received support from Saudi Arabia and other Arabian Peninsula states to quell a mass anti-government uprising.
 
The trial itself bore the trademarks of the kind of shadowy security courts common in drab dictatorships such as Iran, Myanmar or Syria rather than a country that is chummy with Washington and hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.
 
During the court proceedings, the seven protestors were refused legal council and contact with relatives, activists and human rights advocates said.
 
At least 30 people have died, four of them members of the security forces. Hundreds of other Shiite and secular opposition figures and professionals have been detained since martial law was declared March 15. 
The crackdown prompted Amnesty International to issue a briefing paper April 21 describing the developments as a "worrying trend."  "The renewed crackdown and arrests of opposition activists has been accompanied by an alarming increase in reports of torture and other ill-treatment of people detained in connection with the protests," stated the report.
 --------------------
Egypt, Tunisia, and The Death of Osama Bin Laden   by Muqtedar Khan | huffingtonpost
  
In Tunisia, Muslims brought change and democracy through a peaceful uprising. The same is true of Muslims who for weeks campaigned peacefully but resolutely for justice, for dignity and for democracy in Tahreer Square in Cairo.
 
As dictators perish and democracies take birth across the Muslim World, terrorism, extremism, al-Qaeda and bin Laden look more and more irrelevant to the present and the future of the Muslim World. Neither bin Laden nor Al Qaeda, neither their goals nor their methods have any appeal anymore for the Muslim masses.
 
Because bin Laden does not inspire Muslims anymore, anywhere, his organization and his ideology are irrelevant and therefore his death is merely a symbolic success but substantively irrelevant.  Bin Laden showed a way to seek change and oppose Western domination and some followed him, because they found the conditions of their societies unacceptable and saw no other way to bring change.
 
Now with the example of Tunisia and Egypt, whose spectacular success stands in sharp contrast to the horrors that bin Laden's way brought to both non-Muslims and Muslims alike; Muslims seeking change will emulate Tunisians and Egyptians.  
 
We see this happening in Bahrain, in Yemen, and in Syria already. bin Laden's way was murderous and brought shame to Muslims and Islam. The Tunisian and Egyptian way is glorious and brings dignity and pride back to Muslims.
 
We will deal with all that later, for now congratulations to the Special Forces that made this happen, to President Obama for his courageous leadership, and to all Americans who waited for justice all these years.
----------------
An Arab Spring for Women:  
The Missing Story From the Middle East   - by Juan Cole and Shahin Cole | huffingtonpost.com
   
The "Arab Spring" has received copious attention in the American media, but one of its crucial elements has been largely overlooked: the striking role of women in the protests sweeping the Arab world. Despite inadequate media coverage of their role, women have been and often remain at the forefront of those protests.
 
As a start, women had a significant place in the Tunisian demonstrations that kicked off the Arab Spring, often marching up Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, the capital, with their husbands and children in tow. Then, the spark for the Egyptian uprising that forced President Hosni Mubarak out of office was a January 25th demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square called by an impassioned young woman via a video posted on Facebook. In Yemen, columns of veiled women have come out in Sanaa and Taiz to force that country's autocrat from office, while in Syria, facing armed secret police, women have blockaded roads to demonstrate for the release of their husbands and sons from prison.
 
In late January, freelance journalist Megan Kearns pointed out the relative inattention American television and most print and Internet media gave to women and, by and large, the absence of images of women protesting in Tunisia and Egypt. Yet women couldn't have been more visible in the big demonstrations of early to mid-January in the streets of Tunis, whether accompanying their husbands and children or forming distinct protest lines of their own -- and given Western ideas of oppressed Arab women, this should in itself have been news.
 
Politicians in the transitional government of Tunisia, for decades the most progressive Arab country with regard to women's rights, are determined to protect the public role of women by making sure they are well represented in the new legislature. Elections are now planned for July 24th, and a high commission was appointed to set electoral rules. That body has already announced that party lists will have to maintain parity between male and female candidates.
 
In such a list system, you don't vote for an individual but a party, which has published an ordered list of its candidates. If the list gets 10% of the vote nationally, it is awarded 10 percent of the seats in parliament, and can go down its ordered list until it fills all those seats. Parity for women means that every other candidate on the ordered list should be a woman, ensuring them high near 50% representation in the legislature.   
------------
 
International Crisis Group Report on Tunisia:
Tunisia's Way  

by Kyle Almond | Tunis/Brussels | 28 Apr 2011

Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (IV): Tunisia's Way, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the origins of the revolution and the political and social situation in its aftermath. Despite a rocky period after President Ben Ali's departure, Tunisia has displayed remarkable ability to reach consensus on critical political issues. It has done so by ensuring that a wide variety of social and political forces have a voice.  

Tunisia's Way
To build on that encouraging start, Tunisia must first continue to find ways to address competing concerns: fear of a return to the past versus fear of a plunge into chaos. Secondly, dialogue must be deepened between the Islamist party, An-Nahda, and secular forces. Mutual mistrust still lingers. Women's groups in particular doubt the movement's sincerity and fear an erosion of women's rights. The Islamists still recall the brutal era of the 1990s when they were systematically suppressed by Ben Ali's regime.
 
"Tunisia is where it all began", says Robert Malley, Crisis Group's Middle East & North Africa Program Director. "It also is where the promise of a successful democratic transition is greatest. For the region and the rest of the world, that should provide ample reason to pay attention and help Tunisians pursue their path".
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
 
Tunisia is where it all began. It also is, by virtually every measure, where the promise of a successful democratic transition is greatest. The reasons are many, but the most significant lies in the country's history of political activism and social mobilisation involving a wide array of forces that decades of regime repression never fully stifled. This tradition served the nation well during the uprising, as workers, the unemployed, lawyers and members of the middle class coalesced in a broad movement. It will have to serve the nation well today as it confronts critical challenges: balancing the urge for radical political change against the need for stability; finding a way to integrate Islamism into the new landscape; and tackling the deep socio-economic problems that sparked the political revolution but which the political revolution in itself cannot address.
 
Meanwhile, the regime's bases of support shrivelled in dramatic fashion. In his hour of greatest need, Ben Ali was basically alone. Over time, what had been virtually a one-party state come to resemble the First Family's private preserve. Economic resources once shared among the elite increasingly were monopolised by the president and his wife, Leyla Trabelsi, while the private sector paid a hefty price. The ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD), no longer served as a source of patronage; tellingly, it was unable to organise a single pro-regime demonstration despite repeated calls by the president's entourage. The president likewise kept the army both under-resourced and at arms' length; what loyalty it displayed was to the state, not the regime.  
 
A second challenge is to integrate Islamists into the revamped political system. Tunisia starts with a not inconsiderable advantage. An-Nahda - its principal Islamist movement - stands out among many of its Arab counterparts by virtue of its pragmatism, efforts to reach out to other political forces and sophisticated intellectual outlook. Some secular parties, too, have sought, over the years, to build bridges with it. An-Nahda took a back seat during the uprising and subsequently has sought to reassure. But mutual mistrust lingers. Women's groups in particular doubt its sincerity and fear an erosion of gender rights. The Islamists recall the 1990s when the Ben Ali regime systematically suppressed them.
 
RECOMMENDATIONS
 
UN body invites Election Committee to help Arab nations conduct polls  

by Rakhi Chakrabarty | Times of India

As Egypt prepares for a transition to democracy, United Nations Development Programme has invited Election Commission of India (ECI) for a meeting in Cairo. Discussions will be held to provide help to countries in the Arab region, including Egypt and Tunisia, in holding elections.
 
Mexico and South Africa are the other countries invited for the two-day meet that will be held on May 2-3. It is aimed at identifying capacity, knowledge gaps and support required by election management bodies of countries like Egypt and Tunisia.
 
Egypt and Tunisia are in transition after popular uprisings overthrew the totalitarian regimes. A similar trend has also come to fore in several countries in the region.
 
"They were keen to know about EVM and how it works. The functions and operation of EVM was demonstrated to them," said Akshay Rout, director-general of ECI.
 
Quraishi suggested Egypt should develop its own EVM. "We can help with technology and know-how," he said.  Besides, the Egyptians wanted to know about SMS, GIS and GPS used by ECI to track elections, and also about indelible ink.
 
"Egypt seems to have taken such a historic change with a great deal of maturity. They didn't seem to be in a flux or in too much confusion. Rather, they seem to be in a hurry to establish democracy," said Quraishi.
-------------------
Contrasting progress on democracy in Tunisia and Egypt  - by Alfred Stepan | The Immanent Frame

Reflecting on a recent trip to Tunisia and Egypt, and comparing these contexts to the more than twenty democratic transitions that he has observed and analyzed across the globe, political scientist Alfred Stepan asks, "What are the chances of successful democratic transitions in Tunisia and Egypt?"   
 
The first reality to appreciate is that, despite worries about the incompatibility of Islam and democracy, over 500 million Muslims live in Muslim majority countries that are commonly classified as democracies: Indonesia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Senegal, Mali and Albania. But, for almost forty years, not a single Arab majority country has been classified as a democracy. Thus, if Arab-majority Egypt and Tunisia become democracies, it would thus be of immense importance for the Arab world and, indeed, for world affairs.
 
I believe Tunisia's chances of becoming a democracy before the year ends are surprisingly good. This is for six, largely political, reasons. Most importantly, the military is not complicating the transition to democracy. Tunisia not only has a small military of only about 36,000 men, but since independence, in 1956, the country has been led by two party-based non-democratic leaders who strove to keep the military out of politics.
 
Tunisia's interim government has announced that elections for a Constituent Assembly will be held on July 24, 2011, and, crucially, that as soon as the votes are counted, it will step down.
 
The newly elected Constituent Assembly will, as in the classic democratic transitions of Spain and India, immediately have the responsibility of forming the government.  The Constituent Assembly will be free to choose a presidential, semi-presidential, or a parliamentary system. A consensus is emerging among political leaders to choose the same system for which the ten post-communist countries that have been admitted to the European Union opted, parliamentarianism.
 
Finally, Rachid Ghannouchi, who leads the largest Islamic-based political party, Al Nahda, went out of his way to tell me that he has signed an agreement with some secular parties that he will not try to change Tunisia's women-friendly family code, the best in the Arab world. In the new democratic environment, while many party leaders do not fully trust Ghannouchi, they think the political costs to Al Nahda of trying to impose an Islamic state would be too great to risk. They also increasingly think the most democratically effective policy of secular parties toward Al Nahda is accommodation, not exclusion.
 
Democratization in Egypt in the long term is probable, but it does not share the especially favorable conditions that we find in Tunisia. One of the biggest differences between the two countries is that every president of Egypt since 1952 has been a military officer. Post-Mubarak, the interim government, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is led by eighteen generals.
 
In SCAF's March 30, 2011, Constitutional Declaration it became absolutely clear that, unlike Tunisia, the parliament to be elected in September 2011 will not form a government. Articles 56 and 61 stipulate that SCAF will retain a broad range of executive powers until a president is elected. Instead of the Parliament itself acting as the sovereign body to write a constitution, Article 60 mandates that the parliament is to "elect a 100-member constituent assembly." The big questions now are how many non-elected outside experts will in fact be in this "constituent assembly," and how they will actually arrive there.   
------------
Tunisian gender-parity 'revolution' hailed  

In a regional breakthrough, parties must present equal numbers of male and female candidates in Tunisia's July vote.

by Agencies | Al-Jazeera English

A new ruling guarantees Tunisian women a place in the country's new political landscape
 
Tunisia's ruling that men and women must feature in equal numbers as candidates in July polls is an Arab world first that builds on this year's revolt and allays fears of conservative influence, observers say.
 
The decision by authorities preparing the July 24 constituent assembly poll after the uprising that toppled Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the north African nation's long-serving president, has been hailed as a regional breakthrough.  The Tunisian revolution has sparked similar revolts in other Arab countries.
 
"It is historic," said Sana Ben Achour, president of the Tunisian Association of Women Democrats, after international rights groups also welcomed last week's announcement.  "And it is only right in a country where men and women fought side by side for democracy."
 
But the Islamist Nahda movement, allowed to register in March for the first time since it was formed in 1981, was among those that voted in favor of the new ruling.
 
One of its leaders, Ali Laryadh, dismissed concerns it wanted to backtrack on women's rights in Tunisia, saying such allegations came from "people who want to misguide public opinion and attack the movement".
 
"We were the first to call for parity between men and women for the electoral lists, and with the principle of alternating men and women on the lists," he said.
 
The gender parity ruling "is the first in the Arab and Muslim world, which should encourage Tunisian women to involve themselves more in political life", Laarbi Chouikha, a political analyst, said.
 
The vote on July 24 will elect a constituent assembly that will be charged with drawing up a post-Ben Ali constitution and hear submissions on issues involving women.
 
It was unacceptable in today's Tunisia for women to be excluded, Lilia Laabidi, the women's affairs minister, told AFP.  "They took part in the revolution, condemned corruption and all forms of violence, it is completely normal that they should be represented 50 per cent in all sectors." 
 
-------------------
CNN -
5 voices: What's next for the 'Arab Spring'?  by Kyle Almond | CNN 
 
It all happened so fast.  In January, less than a month after fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi lit himself on fire, nationwide protests in Tunisia forced out President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.
 
CNN.com reached out to five experts for opinion and analysis. More specifically, we posed the following question: How do you see the "Arab Spring" playing out as we move toward the summer months?
 

Julie Taylor, a Middle East specialist who lived in Egypt for four years, is a political scientist at the RAND Corp.
Ibrahim Sharqieh is deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center.
Parag Khanna, author of "How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance," is a senior research fellow with the New America Foundation.
Feryal Cherif is an assistant professor for the political science department at the University of California, Riverside.
Nader Hashemi teaches Middle East politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, and he is author of "The People Reloaded: The Green Movement and the Struggle for Iran's Future."
 
Moreover, the nature and character of the forms of authoritarian rule in the Arab world -- and the devastation they have wrought -- pose different challenges for democrats moving forward. There is cause for optimism even if we assume a worst-case scenario where democratic forces are crushed in Libya, Syria, Yemen and beyond.  Were this to happen, these revolts would still leave behind a powerful legacy that future democratic forces can build upon, buttressed by the successful examples of Tunisia and Egypt, where the prospects for democracy appear to be the greatest.
 
Regardless of how many democratic transitions we witness this year, the tide of history has turned. The days are numbered for Arab authoritarian regimes, and those who argue that Islam/Arab culture is incompatible with democracy are left scrambling.
 

About CSID

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